CHECK
YOUR ASSUMPTIONS:
FACTS,
INFERENCE AND OPINIONS
Plenty of things are matters of opinion. But
others are matters of fact. Say you and your neighbor have just seen a movie
and are about to head to your favorite restaurant. You liked the movie, and
your neighbor didn't –that's opinion. Then you say Route A is the shortest way
to the restaurant, and your neighbor says it isn't– those are facts but facts
in dispute. In other words, one of you is right, and the other is wrong. This generalization holds throughout
life's most major issues; some people are wrong and others correct.
Not
knowing the difference between opinion and fact makes it difficult to make good
decisions. If you believe too much opinion to be fact,
you'll be self-righteous and intellectually narrow. If you believe too much
fact to be opinion, you'll be gullible and intellectually illogical.
Say
you and your neighbor agree there should be less poverty in our country. You
propose Plan A; he proposes Plan B. These are not matters of opinion. These are
matters of inference – one plan will work better than another. They also may
work equally well, of course. However, only one plan will be chosen and tested.
The problem arises on assumptions related to
aspects of any plan: The task is not simply separating facts from opinions, but
separating facts from strong inferences and separating weak inferences from
opinions. The "better" plan presupposes a fact, like the “better plan”
has the most valid inference drawn upon facts available at any given time.
Facts change as new data appears, hence science
is always the sum of facts available at any given time (the present) for drawing
inferences and giving informed opinions. Science was different throughout time
as it changes as new facts emerge to support or refute claims to be a fact.
If more people knew the difference between
opinion and fact, strong and weak inferences, we would be better prepared to
choose better leaders, our leaders would make better decisions, and people
could make real progress toward our common goals instead of spending so much
time arguing “apples: vs. oranges.”
THE
STORY
A
man and wife had their small house thoroughly redecorated and painted – walls,
windows, woodwork. At 5:00 p.m. the decorators left. The man and wife cleaned
up the house, locked up their cabinet that contained silverware and then went
to bed. The next morning, they found a window open, the cabinet open, and all
the silverware missing. The police were called and subsequently found a set of
fingerprints on the window sill. The fingerprints were
sent to police head-quarters for identification. A
reply from headquarters said that the fingerprints on the window
sill exactly matched those of a nasty criminal named Joe Bender. Decide
if the following are facts, inferences, or opinions.
Mark each sentence with an F (fact), I (inference: strong or
weak), or O (for opinion).
THE
STATEMENTS ABOUT THE STORY
1.
The silverware was stolen.
2.
Joe Bender stole the silverware.
3.
At sometime yesterday between the time the house was
painted and now, Joe Bender
was in or around the room.
4.
Joe Bender put the fingerprints on the window sill
5.
The decorators left at 5:00 p.m.
6.
Fingerprints on the window sill exactly matched those
of Joe Bender's.
7.
The man and wife went to bed before cleaning up the house.
8.
Joe Bender had opened the window.
9.
The silverware was missing.
10.
Joe Bender jimmied the lock to get into the cabinet.